AGYS
Agilysys, Inc.
$105.14
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 2.8% above fair value
You pay
$105.14
Bear
$54.48
Fair
$102.28
Bull
$165.09
Bear
$54.48
-48.2%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$102.28
-2.7%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$165.09
+57.0%
29% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
48%
Implied Market Multiple
55.3x
Market is pricing in (growth)
22.5%
vs 22.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $107.50 from 8 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $102.28 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 56% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions