AGYS
Agilysys, Inc.
$123.45
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 19.0% above fair value
You pay
$123.45
Bear
$54.77
Fair
$103.75
Bull
$168.53
Bear
$54.77
-55.6%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$103.75
-16.0%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$168.53
+36.5%
29% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
22.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
48%
Implied Market Multiple
64.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
24.6%
vs 22.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (9 analysts)
$120.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
14%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 22% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $103.75 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 56% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions