AGIO
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$39.61
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 70.2% below fair value
You pay
$39.61
Bear
$113.83
Fair
$132.80
Bull
$151.77
Bear
$113.83
+187.4%
$11.64 × 12x P/E
Fair
$132.80
+235.3%
$11.64 × 14x P/E
Bull
$151.77
+283.2%
$11.64 × 16x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (14x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
3.4x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $42.33 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $132.80 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $42.33 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 285% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples