AFCG
Advanced Flower Capital Inc.
$2.92
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 77.0% below fair value
You pay
$2.92
Bear
$5.17
Fair
$12.72
Bull
$22.69
Bear
$5.17
+77.2%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$12.72
+335.6%
22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$22.69
+677.2%
29% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
48%
Implied Market Multiple
20.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
9.3%
vs 22.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $16.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $12.72 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $16.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions