AERO
Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V.
$16.27
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 54.8% below fair value
You pay
$16.27
Bear
$28.80
Fair
$36.00
Bull
$43.20
Bear
$28.80
+77.1%
$2.40 × 12x P/E
Fair
$36.00
+121.3%
$2.40 × 15x P/E
Bull
$43.20
+165.6%
$2.40 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
2.4$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.8x
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.40, the base-case value is $36.00 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples