AERO
Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V.
$16.01
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 52.7% below fair value
You pay
$16.01
Bear
$26.20
Fair
$33.85
Bull
$40.47
Bear
$26.20
+63.6%
3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$33.85
+111.4%
5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$40.47
+152.8%
7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (5% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
31%
Implied Market Multiple
9.1x
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 5% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $33.85 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions