AER
AerCap Holdings N.V.
$138.62
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 59.0% below fair value
You pay
$138.62
Bear
$270.26
Fair
$337.81
Bull
$405.38
Bear
$270.26
+95.0%
$21.30 × 15x P/E
Fair
$337.81
+143.7%
$21.30 × 19x P/E
Bull
$405.38
+192.4%
$21.30 × 22x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $165.00 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $337.81 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $165.00 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 140% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples