AER
AerCap Holdings N.V.
$146.99
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 62.8% below fair value
You pay
$146.99
Bear
$316.34
Fair
$395.42
Bull
$474.51
Bear
$316.34
+115.2%
$21.30 × 15x P/E
Fair
$395.42
+169.0%
$21.30 × 19x P/E
Bull
$474.51
+222.8%
$21.30 × 22x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
18.6x
21.3$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (19x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.9x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$178.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
122%
Summary
Applying a 19x P/E to adjusted EPS of $21.30, the base-case value is $395.42 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $178.00 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 122% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples