AEP American Electric Power Company, Inc.
$132.14
Stable Earnings Power 85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 13.2% above fair value

You pay $132.14
Bear $102.14
Fair $116.73
Bull $131.32
Bear $102.14 -22.7% $6.66 × 14x P/E
Fair $116.73 -11.7% $6.66 × 16x P/E
Bull $131.32 -0.6% $6.66 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.8x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $140.45 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $116.73 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples