AEP American Electric Power Company, Inc.
$131.59
Stable Earnings Power 85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 13.8% above fair value

You pay $131.59
Bear $101.14
Fair $115.59
Bull $130.04
Bear $101.14 -23.1% $6.66 × 14x P/E
Fair $115.59 -12.2% $6.66 × 16x P/E
Bull $130.04 -1.2% $6.66 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 19.8x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $136.67 from 35 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $115.59 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples