AEO
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.
$15.47
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 5.4% below fair value
You pay
$15.47
Bear
$13.08
Fair
$16.35
Bull
$19.62
Bear
$13.08
-15.4%
$1.09 × 12x P/E
Fair
$16.35
+5.7%
$1.09 × 15x P/E
Bull
$19.62
+26.8%
$1.09 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.09$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.2x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (52 analysts)
$19.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
17%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.09, the base-case value is $16.35 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples