AEIS
Advanced Energy Industries, Inc.
$324.86
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 131.1% above fair value
You pay
$324.86
Bear
$90.95
Fair
$140.60
Bull
$196.66
Bear
$90.95
-72.0%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$140.60
-56.7%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$196.66
-39.5%
21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
145.5x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $362.50 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $140.60 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 38% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $362.50 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 82% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions