AEIS
Advanced Energy Industries, Inc.
$281.32
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 280.7% above fair value
You pay
$281.32
Bear
$47.63
Fair
$73.89
Bull
$103.56
Bear
$47.63
-83.1%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$73.89
-73.7%
16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$103.56
-63.2%
21% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
15.8%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (16% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
112.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
34.5%
vs 15.8% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (27 analysts)
$436.75
Divergence from AlphaVal
83%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 16% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $73.89 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 38% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $436.75 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 83% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions