AEE
Ameren Corporation
$102.19
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 15.3% above fair value
You pay
$102.19
Bear
$77.58
Fair
$88.66
Bull
$99.74
Bear
$77.58
-24.1%
$5.35 × 15x P/E
Fair
$88.66
-13.2%
$5.35 × 17x P/E
Bull
$99.74
-2.4%
$5.35 × 19x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.6x
5.35$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
19.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$116.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
24%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.35, the base-case value is $88.66 per share. DDM cross-check: $103.36.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples