AEE
Ameren Corporation
$112.94
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 16.7% above fair value
You pay
$112.94
Bear
$84.65
Fair
$96.75
Bull
$108.84
Bear
$84.65
-25.0%
$5.35 × 15x P/E
Fair
$96.75
-14.3%
$5.35 × 17x P/E
Bull
$108.84
-3.6%
$5.35 × 19x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
21.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $121.00 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $96.75 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $121.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples