AEE
Ameren Corporation
$107.04
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 20.7% above fair value
You pay
$107.04
Bear
$77.58
Fair
$88.66
Bull
$99.74
Bear
$77.58
-27.5%
$5.35 × 15x P/E
Fair
$88.66
-17.2%
$5.35 × 17x P/E
Bull
$99.74
-6.8%
$5.35 × 19x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.6x
5.35$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.0x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (23 analysts)
$121.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
27%
Summary
Applying a 17x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.35, the base-case value is $88.66 per share. DDM cross-check: $103.36.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $121.00 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples