AEE
Ameren Corporation
$111.29
Stable Earnings Power
85%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 15.2% above fair value
You pay
$111.29
Bear
$84.51
Fair
$96.58
Bull
$108.65
Bear
$84.51
-24.1%
$5.35 × 15x P/E
Fair
$96.58
-13.2%
$5.35 × 17x P/E
Bull
$108.65
-2.4%
$5.35 × 19x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
20.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $120.33 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $96.58 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $120.33 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples