AEBI
Aebi Schmidt Holding AG
$11.32
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 99.3% above fair value
You pay
$11.32
Bear
$4.73
Fair
$5.68
Bull
$6.63
Bear
$4.73
-58.2%
$0.24 × 20x
Fair
$5.68
-49.8%
$0.24 × 24x
Bull
$6.63
-41.5%
$0.24 × 28x
Adjust Assumptions
24.0x
0.24$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.24)
Implied Market Multiple
47.8x
Summary
Using 3-year normalized EPS of $0.24 at a 24x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $5.68 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 11.4x.
Warnings
This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Price-to-book value of 11.4x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing