ADUS
Addus HomeCare Corporation
$92.65
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 12.4% below fair value
You pay
$92.65
Bear
$76.30
Fair
$105.80
Bull
$134.91
Bear
$76.30
-17.6%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$105.80
+14.2%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$134.91
+45.6%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
20.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $122.00 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $105.80 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions