ADUS
Addus HomeCare Corporation
$114.72
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 11.1% below fair value
You pay
$114.72
Bear
$87.20
Fair
$129.06
Bull
$172.70
Bear
$87.20
-24.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$129.06
+12.5%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$172.70
+50.5%
16% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
12.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
41%
Implied Market Multiple
23.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.9%
vs 12.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (16 analysts)
$122.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
6%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $129.06 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions