ADUS
Addus HomeCare Corporation
$108.92
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 4.1% above fair value
You pay
$108.92
Bear
$75.49
Fair
$104.68
Bull
$133.47
Bear
$75.49
-30.7%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$104.68
-3.9%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$133.47
+22.5%
13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (10% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
39%
Implied Market Multiple
23.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
11.2%
vs 10.2% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $117.50 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $104.68 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions