ADSK
Autodesk, Inc.
$217.90
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 0.4% below fair value
You pay
$217.90
Bear
$144.77
Fair
$218.74
Bull
$298.97
Bear
$144.77
-33.6%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$218.74
+0.4%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$298.97
+37.2%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.1%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
25.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.1%
vs 14.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (52 analysts)
$309.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
29%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $218.74 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 70% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $309.00 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions