ADSK
Autodesk, Inc.
$218.35
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 12.9% below fair value
You pay
$218.35
Bear
$165.96
Fair
$250.75
Bull
$342.72
Bear
$165.96
-24.0%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$250.75
+14.8%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$342.72
+57.0%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
25.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
14.1%
vs 14.1% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $310.20 from 51 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $250.75 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 70% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $310.20 (from 51 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions