ADSK
Autodesk, Inc.
$244.84
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 10.8% above fair value
You pay
$244.84
Bear
$146.25
Fair
$220.99
Bull
$302.04
Bear
$146.25
-40.3%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$220.99
-9.7%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$302.04
+23.4%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.1%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
28.2x
Market is pricing in (growth)
15.5%
vs 14.1% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (52 analysts)
$301.13
Divergence from AlphaVal
27%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 14% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $220.99 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 70% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $301.13 (from 52 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions