ADMA
ADMA Biologics, Inc.
$8.59
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 48.6% above fair value
You pay
$8.59
Bear
$3.21
Fair
$5.78
Bull
$9.01
Bear
$3.21
-62.7%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$5.78
-32.7%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$9.01
+4.9%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
154.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
36.5%
vs 20.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.67 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $5.78 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $18.67 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 86% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions