ADMA
ADMA Biologics, Inc.
$11.06
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 189.9% above fair value
You pay
$11.06
Bear
$2.11
Fair
$3.82
Bull
$5.97
Bear
$2.11
-81.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$3.82
-65.5%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$5.97
-46.1%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
20.0%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
133.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
34.4%
vs 20.0% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$18.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
80%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 20% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $3.82 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $18.67 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions