ADMA
ADMA Biologics, Inc.
$8.24
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 31.9% above fair value
You pay
$8.24
Bear
$3.47
Fair
$6.25
Bull
$9.74
Bear
$3.47
-57.9%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$6.25
-24.2%
20% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$9.74
+18.2%
26% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (20% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
46%
Implied Market Multiple
148.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $6.25 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $21.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 88% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions