ADEA
Adeia Inc.
$23.89
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 12.2% above fair value
You pay
$23.89
Bear
$17.82
Fair
$21.29
Bull
$24.75
Bear
$17.82
-25.4%
$0.99 × 18x P/E
Fair
$21.29
-10.9%
$0.99 × 22x P/E
Bull
$24.75
+3.6%
$0.99 × 25x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
21.5x
0.99$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.1x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$39.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
45%
Summary
Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.99, the base-case value is $21.29 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $39.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples