ADEA
Adeia Inc.
$26.86
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 2.9% below fair value
You pay
$26.86
Bear
$23.15
Fair
$27.66
Bull
$32.16
Bear
$23.15
-13.8%
$1.21 × 18x P/E
Fair
$27.66
+3.0%
$1.21 × 22x P/E
Bull
$32.16
+19.7%
$1.21 × 25x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
22.3x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $34.50 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $27.66 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples