ACMR
ACM Research, Inc.
$71.37
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 284.5% above fair value
You pay
$71.37
Bear
$13.92
Fair
$18.56
Bull
$23.20
Bear
$13.92
-80.5%
$1.16 × 12x
Fair
$18.56
-74.0%
$1.16 × 16x
Bull
$23.20
-67.5%
$1.16 × 20x
Adjust Assumptions
16.0x
1.16$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.16)
Implied Market Multiple
61.5x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (10 analysts)
$113.20
Divergence from AlphaVal
84%
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $1.16 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $18.56 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 3.1x.
Warnings
Price-to-book value of 3.1x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $113.20 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 84% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing