ACLS
Axcelis Technologies, Inc.
$156.94
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 49.9% above fair value
You pay
$156.94
Bear
$73.43
Fair
$104.68
Bull
$138.47
Bear
$73.43
-53.2%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$104.68
-33.3%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$138.47
-11.8%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
42.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $128.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $104.68 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions