ACLS
Axcelis Technologies, Inc.
$134.10
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 42.0% above fair value
You pay
$134.10
Bear
$66.75
Fair
$94.42
Bull
$124.35
Bear
$66.75
-50.2%
8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$94.42
-29.6%
14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$124.35
-7.3%
18% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (14% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
41.4x
Market is pricing in (growth)
20.8%
vs 14.0% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $128.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $94.42 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $128.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions