ACLS
Axcelis Technologies, Inc.
$120.03
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 21.8% above fair value
You pay
$120.03
Bear
$67.89
Fair
$98.55
Bull
$132.48
Bear
$67.89
-43.4%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$98.55
-17.9%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$132.48
+10.4%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
36.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
19.1%
vs 14.9% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $128.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $98.55 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $128.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 29% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions