ACLS
Axcelis Technologies, Inc.
$112.93
Platform & Compounding FCF
70%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 19.1% above fair value
You pay
$112.93
Bear
$65.16
Fair
$94.84
Bull
$127.67
Bear
$65.16
-42.3%
9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair
$94.84
-16.0%
15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull
$127.67
+13.0%
19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Adjust Assumptions
14.9%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (15% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
32.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
17.6%
vs 14.9% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (13 analysts)
$140.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
32%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $94.84 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $140.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions