ACHC
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.
$29.98
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 12.1% below fair value
You pay
$29.98
Bear
$27.28
Fair
$34.10
Bull
$40.92
Bear
$27.28
-9.0%
$2.10 × 13x P/E
Fair
$34.10
+13.7%
$2.10 × 16x P/E
Bull
$40.92
+36.5%
$2.10 × 19x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
16.2x
2.1$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
14.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$34.78
Divergence from AlphaVal
2%
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.10, the base-case value is $34.10 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples