ACHC
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.
$23.18
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 32.6% below fair value
You pay
$23.18
Bear
$27.53
Fair
$34.41
Bull
$41.29
Bear
$27.53
+18.8%
$2.30 × 13x P/E
Fair
$34.41
+48.4%
$2.30 × 16x P/E
Bull
$41.29
+78.1%
$2.30 × 19x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.1x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $25.59 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $34.41 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $25.59 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 46% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples