ACHC
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc.
$34.50
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Mild
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 3.1% below fair value
You pay
$34.50
Bear
$28.48
Fair
$35.59
Bull
$42.71
Bear
$28.48
-17.5%
$2.30 × 13x P/E
Fair
$35.59
+3.2%
$2.30 × 16x P/E
Bull
$42.71
+23.8%
$2.30 × 19x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
15.0x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $30.33 from 25 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $35.59 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples