ACEL
Accel Entertainment, Inc.
$11.65
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 21.7% below fair value
You pay
$11.65
Bear
$10.34
Fair
$14.88
Bull
$19.25
Bear
$10.34
-11.2%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$14.88
+27.7%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$19.25
+65.2%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
16.8x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $14.33 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $14.88 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions