ACEL
Accel Entertainment, Inc.
$11.00
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 44.7% below fair value
You pay
$11.00
Bear
$14.67
Fair
$19.89
Bull
$24.78
Bear
$14.67
+33.4%
5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$19.89
+80.8%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$24.78
+125.3%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
8.3%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (8% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
37%
Implied Market Multiple
12.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
2.0%
vs 8.3% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$14.33
Divergence from AlphaVal
39%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $19.89 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $14.33 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 39% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions