ACEL
Accel Entertainment, Inc.
$12.50
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 18.9% below fair value
You pay
$12.50
Bear
$10.72
Fair
$15.42
Bull
$19.94
Bear
$10.72
-14.3%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$15.42
+23.3%
9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$19.94
+59.5%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
17.7x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.4%
vs 9.3% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $17.00 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $15.42 per share.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions