ACDC
ProFrac Holding Corp.
$4.66
Oil & Gas E&P
85%
FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 38.7% below fair value
You pay
$4.66
Bear
$1.94
Fair
$7.61
Bull
$14.73
Bear
$1.94
-58.4%
FCF $151M × 10x
Fair
$7.61
+63.3%
FCF $195M × 13x
Bull
$14.73
+216.2%
FCF $239M × 16x
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
10.3x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$5.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
38%
Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $7.61 per share. Range: $1.94 (bear) to $14.73 (bull).
Warnings
Debt per share ($6.43) is significant relative to the stock price. Even small changes in the debt figure meaningfully shift what each share is worth.
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Wall Street's average price target is $5.50 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 38% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential