ACCO
ACCO Brands Corporation
$4.24
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 35.8% below fair value
You pay
$4.24
Bear
$5.28
Fair
$6.60
Bull
$7.92
Bear
$5.28
+24.5%
$0.44 × 12x P/E
Fair
$6.60
+55.7%
$0.44 × 15x P/E
Bull
$7.92
+86.8%
$0.44 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
0.44$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
9.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (7 analysts)
$6.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
10%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.44, the base-case value is $6.60 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples