ACCO
ACCO Brands Corporation
$4.00
Stable Earnings Power
65%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 72.4% below fair value
You pay
$4.00
Bear
$11.60
Fair
$14.50
Bull
$17.41
Bear
$11.60
+190.0%
$1.08 × 12x P/E
Fair
$14.50
+262.6%
$1.08 × 15x P/E
Bull
$17.41
+335.2%
$1.08 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
3.7x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $8.00 from 7 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $14.50 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 144%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $8.00 (from 7 analysts). Our estimate is 102% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples