ABNB
Airbnb, Inc.
$148.38
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 29.2% below fair value
You pay
$148.38
Bear
$129.77
Fair
$209.58
Bull
$303.73
Bear
$129.77
-12.5%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$209.58
+41.2%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$303.73
+104.7%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
23.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
10.8%
vs 17.3% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $155.67 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $209.58 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 63% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $155.67 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 49% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions