ABNB
Airbnb, Inc.
$183.22
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Fair Value
Trading 22.7% below fair value
You pay
$183.22
Bear
$145.63
Fair
$237.10
Bull
$345.70
Bear
$145.63
-20.5%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$237.10
+29.4%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$345.70
+88.7%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
17.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
29.0x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.9%
vs 17.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (45 analysts)
$175.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
35%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $237.10 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 63% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $175.50 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 35% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions