ABNB
Airbnb, Inc.
$132.35
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 36.7% below fair value
You pay
$132.35
Bear
$129.54
Fair
$209.02
Bull
$302.78
Bear
$129.54
-2.1%
10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$209.02
+57.9%
17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$302.78
+128.8%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (17% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
20.2x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $153.00 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $209.02 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 63% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $153.00 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 52% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions