ABNB
Airbnb, Inc.
$173.70
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 26.5% below fair value
You pay
$173.70
Bear
$144.82
Fair
$236.36
Bull
$345.26
Bear
$144.82
-16.6%
11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$236.36
+36.1%
18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$345.26
+98.8%
23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
17.7%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (18% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
45%
Implied Market Multiple
27.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
13.3%
vs 17.7% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (46 analysts)
$180.91
Divergence from AlphaVal
31%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $236.36 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 63% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $180.91 (from 46 analysts). Our estimate is 31% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions