ABG Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.
$220.36
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong · Conviction

Undervalued

Trading 62.8% below fair value

You pay $220.36
Bear $518.84
Fair $592.96
Bull $667.07
Bear $518.84 +135.5% $33.50 × 19x P/E
Fair $592.96 +169.1% $33.50 × 21x P/E
Bull $667.07 +202.7% $33.50 × 24x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 6.6x

Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $230.00 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $592.96 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 33%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $230.00 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 210% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples