ABG
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.
$210.20
Platform & Compounding FCF
85%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Moderate
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 37.7% below fair value
You pay
$210.20
Bear
$220.50
Fair
$337.47
Bull
$442.17
Bear
$220.50
+4.9%
4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$337.47
+60.5%
6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$442.17
+110.4%
8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
6.5%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (6% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
36%
Implied Market Multiple
13.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
3.6%
vs 6.5% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (19 analysts)
$257.80
Divergence from AlphaVal
31%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $337.47 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $257.80 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 31% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions