ABG
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc.
$220.36
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Undervalued
Trading 62.8% below fair value
You pay
$220.36
Bear
$518.84
Fair
$592.96
Bull
$667.07
Bear
$518.84
+135.5%
$33.50 × 19x P/E
Fair
$592.96
+169.1%
$33.50 × 21x P/E
Bull
$667.07
+202.7%
$33.50 × 24x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.6x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $230.00 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $592.96 per share.
Warnings
The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 33%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $230.00 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 210% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples