ABCB
Ameris Bancorp
$79.02
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 1.5% above fair value
You pay
$79.02
Bear
$54.50
Fair
$77.85
Bull
$101.21
Bear
$54.50
-31.0%
ROTCE 10.3% → 1.11x TBV
Fair
$77.85
-1.5%
ROTCE 13.7% → 1.72x TBV
Bull
$101.21
+28.1%
ROTCE 15.8% → 2.08x TBV
Adjust Assumptions
13.7%
9.6%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.7%) vs. cost of equity (9.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.77x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (12 analysts)
$91.20
Divergence from AlphaVal
15%
Summary
With ROTCE of 13.7% vs. 9.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.72x on $44.66 tangible book, implying $77.85 per share. DDM cross-check: $22.76.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $22.76 (71% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly