ABCB
Ameris Bancorp
$84.69
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 3.6% above fair value
You pay
$84.69
Bear
$52.90
Fair
$81.76
Bull
$99.07
Bear
$52.90
-37.5%
ROTCE 10.3% → 1.15x TBV
Fair
$81.76
-3.5%
ROTCE 13.7% → 1.78x TBV
Bull
$99.07
+17.0%
ROTCE 15.8% → 2.15x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.7%) vs. cost of equity (9.5%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.9x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $91.25 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $81.76 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $23.92 (70% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly