ABCB
Ameris Bancorp
$89.87
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85%
P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Mild
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 7.4% above fair value
You pay
$89.87
Bear
$54.12
Fair
$83.64
Bull
$101.36
Bear
$54.12
-39.8%
ROTCE 10.3% → 1.18x TBV
Fair
$83.64
-6.9%
ROTCE 13.7% → 1.82x TBV
Bull
$101.36
+12.8%
ROTCE 15.8% → 2.21x TBV
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (13.7%) vs. cost of equity (9.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
2.01x
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $92.80 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $83.64 per share.
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $24.85 (69% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly