AAPL
Apple Inc.
$336.64
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 132.8% above fair value
You pay
$336.64
Bear
$101.15
Fair
$144.59
Bull
$189.04
Bear
$101.15
-70.0%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$144.59
-57.0%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$189.04
-43.8%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
55.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
22.6%
vs 11.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (112 analysts)
$341.68
Divergence from AlphaVal
58%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $144.59 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $341.68 (from 112 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions