AAPL
Apple Inc.
$308.63
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 48.5% above fair value
You pay
$308.63
Bear
$145.40
Fair
$207.84
Bull
$271.73
Bear
$145.40
-52.9%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$207.84
-32.7%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$271.73
-12.0%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
51.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
21.6%
vs 11.6% base
Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $327.00 from 111 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $207.84 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $327.00 (from 111 analysts). Our estimate is 56% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions