AAPL
Apple Inc.
$310.63
Platform & Compounding FCF
80%
Two-stage FCF DCF
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 116.2% above fair value
You pay
$310.63
Bear
$100.51
Fair
$143.67
Bull
$187.84
Bear
$100.51
-67.6%
7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair
$143.67
-53.7%
12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull
$187.84
-39.5%
15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Adjust Assumptions
11.6%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (12% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
40%
Implied Market Multiple
51.8x
Market is pricing in (growth)
21.7%
vs 11.6% base
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (111 analysts)
$340.72
Divergence from AlphaVal
58%
Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $143.67 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $340.72 (from 111 analysts). Our estimate is 58% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions