AAON
AAON, Inc.
$85.95
Stable Earnings Power
40%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 344.2% above fair value
You pay
$85.95
Bear
$15.48
Fair
$19.35
Bull
$23.22
Bear
$15.48
-82.0%
$1.29 × 12x P/E
Fair
$19.35
-77.5%
$1.29 × 15x P/E
Bull
$23.22
-73.0%
$1.29 × 18x P/E
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
1.29$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
66.6x
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$122.67
Divergence from AlphaVal
84%
Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.29, the base-case value is $19.35 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $122.67 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 84% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples