0YCP.L
Aptiv PLC
$58.30
Stable Earnings Power
80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 17.8% above fair value
You pay
$58.30
Bear
$43.30
Fair
$49.49
Bull
$55.67
Bear
$43.30
-25.7%
$3.09 × 14x P/E
Fair
$49.49
-15.1%
$3.09 × 16x P/E
Bull
$55.67
-4.5%
$3.09 × 18x P/E
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
18.8x
Summary
Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.09, the base-case value is $49.49 per share.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples