0YCP.L Aptiv PLC
$58.30
Stable Earnings Power 80%
P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Moderate · Conviction

Overvalued

Trading 17.8% above fair value

You pay $58.30
Bear $43.30
Fair $49.49
Bull $55.67
Bear $43.30 -25.7% $3.09 × 14x P/E
Fair $49.49 -15.1% $3.09 × 16x P/E
Bull $55.67 -4.5% $3.09 × 18x P/E

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.8x

Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.09, the base-case value is $49.49 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples