0EDE.L
NXP Semiconductors N.V.
$310.84
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80%
Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Strong
·
Conviction
Overvalued
Trading 145.7% above fair value
You pay
$310.84
Bear
$87.57
Fair
$126.49
Bull
$165.41
Bear
$87.57
-71.8%
$9.73 × 12x + net cash
Fair
$126.49
-59.3%
$9.73 × 16x + net cash
Bull
$165.41
-46.8%
$9.73 × 20x + net cash
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($9.73)
Implied Market Multiple
31.9x
Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $9.73 at a 16x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $126.49 per share.
Warnings
This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing